The OECD report shows that global economic growth is stabilized

Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), headquartered in Paris, the 12th release of comprehensive economic leading index report showed stable global economic growth in the near future.
Overall, the OECD region as a whole in September Leading Index flat and August was 100.2. Group of Seven (United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Canada, Italy, Japan) as a whole leading index is maintained at a level of 100.3 points. China's leading index for four consecutive months maintained at 99.4, indicating that although China's economic slowdown, but growth will remain stable.
See from the country, the leading index of the U.S. economy rebounded slightly to 100.9; stopped consecutive months of declining trend in Italy, the leading index rebound; Germany, France, Japan's leading index declined, economic growth continues to decelerate.
In addition, the economies of the United Kingdom and Brazil to get rid of the euro area continues to be upstream. India and Russia, the leading index continued to go down, that the momentum of economic growth continued to weaken.
OECD statistics of its members and a small number of non-member economic data published regularly to national and regional economic leading index, to predict the economic development situation about six months in advance.

The deputies force Tsan Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang

Remarkable CPC eighteen have been the end of the five-day agenda of the meeting, everyone is looking forward to the new generation of leaders. The pinnacle of Chinese power is about to be boarded Thursday incumbent Vice President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Li Keqiang has a good reputation at the grassroots level and among the representatives.

It is reported that more than 200 members of the 17th CPC Central Committee because of their age, half of them are retiring, so the new session of the Central Committee of the half is new. These concern, because most of them have long-term work at the local grassroots was young the addition experienced suffering, hungry, under Township, then work the scene to give the local people are impressed.

Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, is no exception.

48 National Congress of the CPC, the party secretary of Yan'an Yao Yinliang: "Xi was over twenty-eight thousand Beijing educated youth to Yanan to the countryside to jump the queue, spoke highly of the local people, because he was at that time in that for seven years, very hard in a small ravine, he later became a brigade cadres of the production team, the with local Northern people saying 'good young man'. "

48 National Congress of the CPC, Li Xiaodong: "Vice Premier Li Keqiang we Liaoning worked as secretary of the provincial party committee, because he went to see our base. According to my understanding of the several, all our contact and his people think he is a very wise, the atmosphere, and the people are very friendly, kind, very concerned about our grassroots people, very close to the people, a leader. "

This experience overseas concern, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said: "The new generation of Chinese leaders experienced tumultuous years in China, this kind of experience to make them stronger in the face of current challenges."

Why Japanese electronics giant collective get the blues

Consumer Electronics is a highly competitive industry. But it is striking that, in the past few years, the Japanese electronics giant had a flourishing collective away the blues. If you see from the data, Panasonic, Sharp and Sony, the Japanese electronics "Three Musketeers" of the fiscal year, the total loss of about 37 trillion yen (U.S. $ 46 billion), equivalent to the sum of the profits for the past 18 years.

This may be only the beginning of the long night. Even though Sony is in massive layoffs reorganized, desire this year will not be a huge loss, but Matsushita loss of ten billion U.S. dollars, is a foregone conclusion, its stock price recently plummeted this end. Most people lamented Sharp, Looking back, this year is the birth centenary of Sharp face bleak prospects, this century-old enterprise have to admit, the ability to continue to "survive", is facing a "substantial doubt" .

Japanese electronics giant attributed the huge losses unlucky, especially the appreciation of the yen. Indeed, Japan's major earthquake, the international economy is poor, Thailand floods, the overseas market sales of the three companies significant atrophy; appreciation of the yen, but also give exports as an important source of profit for the giants of the head with a stick.

But if careful study, these although the reasons for Japan's electronics industry gloom and doom, but by no means is the fundamental reason. Even in the yen weak, because even in previously appreciation of the yen during the Big Three are still in the international market Kaijiangtuotu, and introduced the transistor radio, Walkman, CD and video recorders and other electronic new; Sony still losses.

In the end what? It can be said that the survival of the Japanese electronics giant crisis, the fundamental reason is that the strategic misjudgments.

Sharp LCD TV is its housekeeping products, but when the market is obviously saturated the occasion, the Sharp still stick to the original market, spending billions of dollars to expand production, so that when the After market wind shifted, caught up in the quagmire of century-old enterprise. Sharp, Sony also exists, Kazuo Hirai, president of Sony once said, TV is inherited Sony DNA commodity ", these words are nice, but the face of fierce market competition, especially the strong rise of the South Korean enterprises If you can not find the new competitive products, the inevitable defeat in the competition. As an opposite example, Hitachi decisively stop the production of television sets turned to equipment and information and communication systems and other infrastructure to be done here, and fiscal 2011 earnings of about $ 4.3 billion, an increase of 45% over the previous year.

Strategic mistakes at the same time, it is the weakness of the Japanese electronics giant innovation. Once upon a time, the Japanese are proud of the manufacture of mobile phones in Japan, but with the advent of a series of innovative products in Jobs, iPhone, iPad rapidly popular in Japan, which is equal to a slap in the face of the Japanese electronics giant. That the industry laments, in the era of audio and video to create a the numerous revolutionary electronic products in Japan fully sink in the digital age.

Sink behind a cause can not be ignored is the Japanese company's system. Daniel Kalman won the Nobel Prize in Economics to criticism that, in all countries, Japanese companies often gamblers lost money like gambling, win back lost money before, will not leave the gaming tables. Such a result, very few companies truly invincible position.

From this perspective, innovation mechanism for dwarfs. "Wall Street Journal" 8 "70" in the United States now top 21 electronics companies; 10 years ago, six of which size is too small, not yet among the Forbes 500. But U.S. companies innovative mechanisms to promote the market survival of the fittest the outstanding enterprises burst out innovative, eventually making it to the beach-goers in the market. Which include the market value of the world's first Apple, a major feature of the Apple innovation to meet consumer demand, but to create a new demand to meet the needs of consumers.

In Japan, however, more than 50 years, the top few have been several electronics companies. Enterprise may be evergreen, but more will as time goes on, innovative force in the shrinking.

That year, the Japanese electronics giant long drive into the U.S. market, and the final demise of the U.S. TV industry completely, but the market is not always the winner. Decades after the Apple comeback, Samsung [microblogging] have sprung up everywhere, and electronics enterprises in China is also a strong rise, which shows that the world's electronic pattern is undergoing great changes, stick to the same lack of innovation is bound to be eliminated by the market. Of course, this description from the other side, Apple even now flourishing, not necessarily will become a century enterprise. The tide of the market for the past 30 years ago, in China, in the world, the number of giant demise, and how many of the new leader was born. "Seeing him from the high-rise, seeing his dinner guests, seeing his building collapsed, metabolism is the eternal law, unless you can keep alive often new.

HSBC: after the U.S. presidential election to be concerned about their financial cliff

Hailed as the most intense of the U.S. presidential election in 50 years, As Obama announced successful re-election has come to an end. Global concern, the result of the election of the President of the United States to celebrate Obama's re-election, the investment climate is good, the euro, the Australian dollar rebounded. However, HSBC Global capital markets Asia-Pacific Wealth Strategies Director Ye Jianxiong reminded that the 12th, the threat of the U.S. fiscal cliff has a step closer.

According to its analysis, the political, the election results on behalf of the U.S. Congress will continue to be stalled, especially in the House remains Republican dominated, accounting for most of the Democratic Party in the Senate with Republicans on fiscal issues continue to struggle, "This is reminiscent of in the summer of 2011, the two parties in the dispute on the budget deficit, eventually leading to the Standard & Poor's lowered the U.S. AAA long-term sovereign credit rating, this situation is likely to again be staged once.

Ye Jianxiong said, in January next year, the U.S. Congress will enter a "lame duck" period for the transfer of old and new Members, Members of the two parties in the two major issues to solve the fiscal cliff - increase taxes and cut spending on the delay consensus, uncertainty.

He said: "Although the market believe that the two parties will eventually reach an agreement, to take a middle-of-the-road, in order to avoid the United States into recession for the full implementation of the tax increases and spending cuts, but it is expected that the bipartisan extension of tax breaks to postpone part of the spending cuts to slowly negotiations to gain time, because of the financial problems of the United States really is not one forty-five can solve.

The European Commission predicted the European economy begin to recover next year

The European Commission published the autumn economic forecast report said Europe's recent economic growth prospects remain bleak, is gradually emerging from the medium and long term, to win back the confidence of the effect of structural reforms as well as the construction of the EU institutional mechanisms, is expected next year began a slow recovery of the European economy .

The report said the short term, the prospects of the EU economy is still fragile, but the European economy will gradually return to growth in 2013, the recovery trend of 2014 will be more stable. Specifically, this year, the EU and the euro area's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to shrink by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. In 2013, the European Union and the euro zone's GDP is expected to be an increase of 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively.

The report said: the German economy this year and next year, the EU's largest economy is expected to grow by 0.8%; French economy in the next two years is expected an increase of 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively; troubled by the debt crisis and the banking crisis, the situation in Italy and Spain the poor, which the Italian economy will shrink by 2.3% this year, next year continues to shrink 0.5%; Spanish economy this year and next will be expected to shrink by 1.4%.

The report said the EU's huge internal and external economic imbalances are reduced, but this adjustment process is greatly affected domestic demand in some countries. The same time, 10 years after the completion of the European Monetary Union (EMU), gradually declining competitiveness in some countries is currently slow recovery, therefore, with the recovery of global trade, export growth in European countries will slow recovery.

In addition, the economic situation of the euro-zone countries to accept international aid is not the same. Ireland, the situation is slightly better, competitiveness, and the improvement of the labor market will promote the country's economic growth this year to 0.4% next year, an increase of 1.1%. Ongoing large-scale structural reform and fiscal austerity, Greece and Portugal's economy this year will shrink by 6% and 3%, will shrink by 4.2% and 1%, respectively, in 2013.

The report also predicts that Europe's unemployment rate will remain high. Although the economic recovery will bring a gradual improvement in the labor market, but after the peak in 2013, the unemployment rate of the euro area and the EU will remain at close to 12% and 11% of high. Eurostat data released last week showed that the unemployment rate in the euro zone and the European Union in September reached 11.6% and 10.6%, respectively.

In addition, high energy prices and indirect tax increases in the next few quarters will continue to be a major promoter of the rate of inflation in Europe, However, due to the domestic consumer price pressure is not high, the inflation rate in Europe in 2013 gradually reduced from the current 2.5% to below the maximum set by the European Central Bank's 2% target.

Rehn, the European Commission responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, said in the press conference on the publication of the report, Europe is experiencing a macroeconomic rebalancing difficult process, and this process will continue for some time we predict that the growth prospects of the EU economy will began a gradual improvement from the beginning of next year. "Wren said," series of important measures taken by the European Union as a response to the debt crisis to consolidate the confidence to lay the basis of market pressure also decreased, but there can be no room for complacency. European Union must continue to be reasonable fiscal policy and structural reforms combined, in order to create the conditions for sustainable growth, so that the unacceptable high unemployment rate has dropped slightly.

Rehn also said that the ongoing structural reforms of some European countries will soon play a role in the construction of the mechanism of the European Monetary Union will continue to build confidence, "lay the foundation for 2014 EU countries stronger, balanced economic growth In 2014, the EU economy is expected to grow by 1.6%, the euro area economy to grow by 1.4%. "

Eurostat data show that the second quarter of this year, the euro area and the EU economy 0.2% atrophy. Eurostat intends announced third-quarter economic data next week. Most analysts have pointed out, the third quarter, the euro area and the EU economy is likely to continue declining trend of the last quarter.

Financial Times: Leucadia36 one hundred million U.S. dollars acquisition of an independent investment bank Jefferies

The enterprise group Leucadia National agreed to independent investment bank Jefferies acquisition in the form of an all-stock transaction, which is the nation's largest securities dealer, the transaction value of approximately $ 3.6 billion. The transaction highlights the challenges faced by the Wall Street independent investment bank. Prior to the acquisition, Jefferies has experienced a period of uncertain times. Securities and Exchange rival MF Global bankruptcy last year after Jefferies suffering a funding crisis. Although the acquisition valuation is relatively high, compared to last Friday's closing market capitalization of $ 2.9 billion, a premium of up to 24%, but Jefferies and the Leucadia merger may lead to a guess about other independent investment banks in the capital market financing prospects. Because they do not belong to the bank holding company, so they are called independent investment banks. These banks operating conditions and predict the opposite. Originally, the market is expected to the 多德弗兰克 Act reform after 2010, due to the regulatory limit for larger competitors, they are supposed to benefit from. Last week, a smaller investment bank KBW to Stifel Financial acquisition.

Revelation of the liabilities of Japan

The recently released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance statistics show that as of the end of September, the national debt, including government bonds, borrowings and short-term government bonds amounted to 983.295 trillion yen (U.S. $ 77.3 trillion yuan), a record high. 7.1098 trillion yen compared to the last data released by the end of June, is expected to the end of fiscal 2012, the national debt will total ¥ 1,085,000,000,000,000. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan's total estimated population of 1.2753 million calculations per capita debt of about 7.71 million yen.

Japanese government debt to GDP ratio of over 200%, but the bond market to maintain long-term stability, especially the interest rate is very low (almost no gain), which seems to be in violation of economic common sense. Japanese companies or individuals fought to put money into the bond market, because the national debt is the safest and most liquid assets, even if the investors want to exit the bond market can not find the same capacity and market liquidity can replace. Which also contains a Japanese psychological structure, closed local preferences, but also related to the lack of trust in the international market, because of Japan's investment in overseas assets before the bubble burst almost have encountered a problem. Therefore, the majority of funds remain in the country rather than to the international market. Investment, despite the yen carry activities, mainly the implementation of the overseas institutions. There is no place for the funds ultimately input into the government bond market in Japan, to provide financing for the government deficit.

More peculiar is that government bonds accounted for 25% of the total assets held by the banking system in Japan, Japanese government bonds held by institutions such as central banks, insurance, annuity, plus total about 60 percent, it is like The wall is a market, long-term holding and holdings of government bonds to financial institutions to ensure market stability. MF officials warn the stability of the banking system in Japan last month, the size of the government bonds of their proportion of total assets held by the Japan Bank may be in five years from the current one-quarter rose to third. The Bank of Japan is under tremendous pressure, and being swayed by the Japanese government.

Japan's national debt crisis, its financial sustainability is mainly dependent on the Japanese domestic liquidity and confidence is hard to say. Japanese companies almost never expand investment due to a serious aging problem, but the constant increase in savings, unless large-scale implementation of overseas mergers and acquisitions have may affect the liquidity of the domestic or the current account deficit led to the water dried up. Japanese Finance Ministry this week, a report said Japan's economy shrank by 0.9% in the July-September quarter. Japan's economic growth becomes suspicious, coupled with the strong yen, Japan's corporate revenue and national current account will withstand the pressure, but do not rule out the possibility of continued deterioration. These will let Japan continue to have sufficient liquidity to support financial financing becomes more and more suspicious.

As for government spending cuts, which is almost an impossible task, because of cuts in social spending, especially welfare, politically suicidal behavior, therefore, the Democratic Party and the Liberal Democratic Party program to reach a consensus on raising the consumption tax, but long term, even if the tax increases can only eke out a period of time, can only delay the crisis and will not resolve the crisis, Japanese exceptionalism may be fragile. Japanese financial institutions to hold government bonds so that the size of the debt appears safe expansion and long-term interest rates would depress survive so that the enterprises should be eliminated, thus affecting the industrial restructuring, the plight of the Japanese economy is that the transition has not been successful.