The European Commission predicted the European economy begin to recover next year

The European Commission published the autumn economic forecast report said Europe's recent economic growth prospects remain bleak, is gradually emerging from the medium and long term, to win back the confidence of the effect of structural reforms as well as the construction of the EU institutional mechanisms, is expected next year began a slow recovery of the European economy .

The report said the short term, the prospects of the EU economy is still fragile, but the European economy will gradually return to growth in 2013, the recovery trend of 2014 will be more stable. Specifically, this year, the EU and the euro area's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to shrink by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. In 2013, the European Union and the euro zone's GDP is expected to be an increase of 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively.

The report said: the German economy this year and next year, the EU's largest economy is expected to grow by 0.8%; French economy in the next two years is expected an increase of 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively; troubled by the debt crisis and the banking crisis, the situation in Italy and Spain the poor, which the Italian economy will shrink by 2.3% this year, next year continues to shrink 0.5%; Spanish economy this year and next will be expected to shrink by 1.4%.

The report said the EU's huge internal and external economic imbalances are reduced, but this adjustment process is greatly affected domestic demand in some countries. The same time, 10 years after the completion of the European Monetary Union (EMU), gradually declining competitiveness in some countries is currently slow recovery, therefore, with the recovery of global trade, export growth in European countries will slow recovery.

In addition, the economic situation of the euro-zone countries to accept international aid is not the same. Ireland, the situation is slightly better, competitiveness, and the improvement of the labor market will promote the country's economic growth this year to 0.4% next year, an increase of 1.1%. Ongoing large-scale structural reform and fiscal austerity, Greece and Portugal's economy this year will shrink by 6% and 3%, will shrink by 4.2% and 1%, respectively, in 2013.

The report also predicts that Europe's unemployment rate will remain high. Although the economic recovery will bring a gradual improvement in the labor market, but after the peak in 2013, the unemployment rate of the euro area and the EU will remain at close to 12% and 11% of high. Eurostat data released last week showed that the unemployment rate in the euro zone and the European Union in September reached 11.6% and 10.6%, respectively.

In addition, high energy prices and indirect tax increases in the next few quarters will continue to be a major promoter of the rate of inflation in Europe, However, due to the domestic consumer price pressure is not high, the inflation rate in Europe in 2013 gradually reduced from the current 2.5% to below the maximum set by the European Central Bank's 2% target.

Rehn, the European Commission responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, said in the press conference on the publication of the report, Europe is experiencing a macroeconomic rebalancing difficult process, and this process will continue for some time we predict that the growth prospects of the EU economy will began a gradual improvement from the beginning of next year. "Wren said," series of important measures taken by the European Union as a response to the debt crisis to consolidate the confidence to lay the basis of market pressure also decreased, but there can be no room for complacency. European Union must continue to be reasonable fiscal policy and structural reforms combined, in order to create the conditions for sustainable growth, so that the unacceptable high unemployment rate has dropped slightly.

Rehn also said that the ongoing structural reforms of some European countries will soon play a role in the construction of the mechanism of the European Monetary Union will continue to build confidence, "lay the foundation for 2014 EU countries stronger, balanced economic growth In 2014, the EU economy is expected to grow by 1.6%, the euro area economy to grow by 1.4%. "

Eurostat data show that the second quarter of this year, the euro area and the EU economy 0.2% atrophy. Eurostat intends announced third-quarter economic data next week. Most analysts have pointed out, the third quarter, the euro area and the EU economy is likely to continue declining trend of the last quarter.